09.07.2024
The interview was conducted and written by Sara Pasqualetto.
We would like to start by getting to know you better. What can you tell us about your work and your experience within WCRP?
Cath Senior: I have been at the UK Met Office for 38 years. I trained as a mathematician and joined the "Understanding Climate Change" group in 1986, a very small group back then. My expertise lies in climate modelling—building climate models and using them to understand climate change and climate feedbacks, especially those related to clouds. I've also worked extensively on climate sensitivity and high-resolution modelling, including leading projects on the impact of climate change on rainfall in Africa where we ran frontiers km-scale simulations of the African continent.
I joined the WCRP after encouragement from my first boss, Professor John Mitchell, a guru in climate change modelling. He had been involved in the Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) since its early days and suggested I join once he stepped down. It seemed like a really good opportunity, since I had already engaged in the IPCC by attending the first two Conferences of the Parties and acting as a Lead Author on IPCC AR3, through which I met many of the people who were contributing to the working group’s activities. I joined as a member in 2009 and by 2013, I became the co-chair.
WGCM has always been very much focused on model practitioners, providing a platform to exchange ideas and solve common problems, and it has been a great place to bring many model developments forward. The supportive nature of these groups, where everyone is motivated by nothing more than a love of science and a desire to see it progress, is truly inspiring. The dedication and effort people put into these collaborations, often during long hours and evening meetings, are remarkable. Being part of these international panels has been the highlight of my career.
Having been involved for a long time, what do you think has been the biggest evolution in WCRP, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), and WGCM?
Cath: There have been significant changes, starting with the introduction of the Grand Challenges, which have now evolved into the Lighthouse Activities. These initiatives have been successful in engaging the community, especially when we think about early career researchers and communities from the Global South, who had traditionally been underrepresented in WCRP projects. They have provided focused activities that people can really get involved in, and have integrated well with the longer-term nature of the core projects.
Another major evolution is the influence that CMIP has had on the policy agenda at very high levels. Initially, CMIP was designed as a science-driven activity focused on model intercomparison. Today, it informs national adaptation plans and intergovernmental mitigation strategies. This shift has been beyond our imagination and truly remarkable to witness. It also brought about some challenges, particularly regarding the growing need to operationalize model projections and support their use in policy. The scale of and reliance of the International science and policy communities on CMIP has grown tremendously, and moving forward we need to balance supporting policy-relevant science while maintaining our core scientific objectives.
Among the changes undertaken by WCRP over the years, there has been a noticeable increase in the involvement of female and younger scientists in WCRP. How have you seen this evolve?
Cath: When I started, there were very few women involved, although those present were truly brilliant. Sandrine Bony and I were the first women to co-chair a WCRP group, which was a proud moment. Over time, the representation of women has improved considerably. Early career professionals are also getting more opportunities, though there's still a sense that you need to be at a certain level to participate. Initiatives like "Fresh Eyes on CMIP" help to bridge this gap, allowing younger researchers to contribute and gain confidence.
The Steering Group of the new ESMO core project is a great example of diversity in action. It brings together people with diverse experiences and career stages, fostering an environment where different perspectives are valued.
What motivated you to join ESMO?
Cath: As we developed the concept for a new project bringing together all the modelling activities of WCRP, my initial motivation was to ensure we didn't lose the valuable community within our working group. We saw the need for better interaction with other modelling groups such as WGSIP and WGNE, and bringing together modelling and observational communities was long overdue and much needed. ESMO has the real potential to bring all the pieces together and do something additional and different.
Why is now a good time to bring ESMO to life?
Cath: The current wide landscape of modelling and observations, and particularly with the rise of artificial intelligence and machine learning, makes this the perfect time to elevate and synthesise these activities. These new challenges reinforce the need to think about the overlap between models and observations, and to look closely at elements such as reanalysis and how important this is likely to be for making predictions over a range of timescales. Additionally, significant changes in observation methods, particularly with satellite capabilities, highlight the value of communicating in a unified, knowledgeable, and coordinated manner with the community responsible for these observations. It's clear from our first meeting in Hamburg that there is strong support for ESMO. People recognise that some of the challenges they have faced will now be better addressed.
How do you envision success for ESMO in five years?
Cath: Success would look like a well-supported and evaluated hierarchy of models, including km-scale and AI-driven models, addressing a wide range of scientific questions. There is no one single model able to provide satisfactory answers to our questions, therefore we need a diverse set of models to tackle different problems effectively. Another measure of success will be a better integration between models and observations, reducing uncertainties in our projections. If we can achieve this, all WCRP activities will benefit, showcasing our capability to the global scientific community.
Any advice for those interested in joining the ESMO SSG?
Cath: Bring your ideas to the table! This is a fantastic opportunity to engage with the broader international science community and contribute to it. ESMO is a friendly group that addresses many critical questions, such as integrating models and observations and the challenges that come with it. If you're passionate about these topics, ESMO is the right place to grow and make a meaningful impact.
You can hear more from Cath during the webinar organized by CMIP on July 24th, 2024 – join us!